Sample History Paper on United States Presidential election
Hillary Clinton to win
The 2016 United States presidential election is likely to be won by Hillary Clinton, this is because poll numbers for Donald Trump have wilted over the past few weeks and is attributed to presidential debates conducted that saw Hillary perform exemplarily well (Damian 2016). A new survey by political experts have predicted that Clinton will win the election with 347 electoral votes compared to 191 votes for Trump and this means that she can tentatively prepare herself as the incoming president (Damian 2016). There are diverse reasons why Hillary Clinton is likely to win the election, first Hillary’s campaigns have focused so much on national vote since it is not a good idea to concentrate on individual votes. In regards to this, a larger percentage of pollsters have indicated that Hillary is leading nationally; the trend is still looking good for Hillary with two weeks to go.
Second, Hillary is well placed on the Electoral College since in United States presidents are not only elected nationally but across states based on Electoral College and the first person to reach the 270 mark number is likely to clinch the presidency. News outlets and political websites have projected Electoral College based on the national polls projections putting Hillary at 272 (Damian 2016). Third, the battleground map for Hillary look promising due to evolution over time, states like Colorado and Virginia that were originally hostile to Hillary candidature are now safely on her column and she has even reduced the gap in Texas based on pollsters. Fourth, information presented by University of Florida professor who actually tabulates early voting has confirmed that Democrats are leading in most of the states including those that Republicans clinched in four years ago (Damian 2016).
Election map and regions
Pollsters have affirmed that 270 will be the magic number for one to win the presidential election, being a Democratic Hillary has a number of states that she is clearly going to win and includes California, Washington, New York, Oregon, Illinois while Trump will win in states like Texas, Mississippi and Louisiana. There are also states that are considered neutral and each candidate has launched all offensive campaigns to grab the votes, these states include Florida and Ohio, political analysts have projected that Hillary is likely to win in these states. There are also swing states like Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada and Pennsylvania that may go Clinton’s way, according to recent poll number Hillary may win in New Hampshire by 86.2 percent, Colorado by 86.8 percent, Nevada by 70.9 percent and 87 percent for Pennsylvania which is worth 20 electoral votes (Morris and Eileen 2016, pg. 17).
On the other hand, Trump recently released a roadmap that shows states and regions that he is likely to win, in other words, such regions are associated with GOP (Johnston 2016, pg. 14). According to his campaign manager Conway, Trump believes that he will win in Iowa, Ohio, Maine, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina and this may result to Trump claiming 266 against 193 electoral votes for Hillary (Johnston 2016, pg. 20). However, the projections by Trump are not in line with political pundit’s predictions as it is believed that currently Hillary is polling better than Trump in Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, states that are very essential for Trump to win (Morris and Eileen 2016, pg. 21). States like Virginia and New Hampshire were considered to be for Trump but recent polls have indicated that Hillary is ahead of Trump by about 10 percent in Virginia, New Hampshire may go her way considering that traditionally Democrats nominees John Kerry and Barack Obama won in New Hampshire previously.
Both campaign camps desperately need Florida considering that the region is inhabited by Hispanic population and many have considered this state slippery for Trump considering his rhetoric policy on immigration, this gives Hillary an edge. However, Trump has come out to claim the 29 Electoral votes with his resonating message on trade and change that is quite reasonable for the region and thus making it a balance for both of them. Ohio contributes to 18 electoral votes in this presidential election, regarding the assertion that no republican candidate has ever won in any election without winning Ohio makes it a do or die for Trump. The core reason why trump may likely win in this region is his message on bringing jobs and trade for the inhabitants. In North Carolina, 15 electoral votes are up for grabs considering that it is a swing votes both parties are energized to claim the region (Morris and Eileen 2016, pg. 32). Reactions by republican on recent shooting and unrest in Charlotte may hand over the region to Trump while Hillary may have an uphill task in claiming the region due to attempts by Democrats to erode LGBT rights.
Democrats have an overwhelming advantage in Pennsylvania; Hillary may as well claim the 20 electoral votes in this state due to the fact that Philadelphia is a friendly city and is significantly inhabited by black population, Scranton is hometown to Joe Biden. This should make it easy for Hillary; however, Trump has exerted a charm offensive in the region and is targeting the few whites in the suburbs. Hillary has an edge over Trump in Virginia and may win the 13 electoral votes though the latter has been trying to rally support from military families and veterans (Morris and Eileen 2016, pg. 25). Strategically Hillary chose Tim Kaine as the running mate in bid to sway support to her camp and the strategy seem to be working despite Trump targeting rural vote boost. Michigan with 16 electoral votes has been reliably a Democrat stronghold for years however Trump may upset victory with his message on unemployment including loss of car enterprises to Mexico and may go to his advantage.
Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes and is important for both presidential candidates, Paul Ryan a republican speaker may swing the votes to Trump’s favor however, Clinton has been sending her daughter to the region in bid to capture younger votes in Universities like Madison. Likewise, New Hampshire with 4 electoral votes is equally important to both candidates as the four votes may prove to be instrumental in pushing one candidate past 270 mark required for a victory. Clinton is concentrating her efforts in liberal areas of Des Moines and Ames in Iowa that constitutes 6 votes in Electoral College while Trump may have an edge by marshaling support from male and white farmers who are in agreement with his messages. Colorado is so important to Trump because pundits have affirmed that if he loses here then he is likely to lose the election, the 9 electoral votes are also vital for a victory for him. Finally, Nevada is another crucial state with 6 votes in the Electoral College and has been tricky for pollsters to predict. This state may swing to Trump considering how the region was damaged by the housing crisis of 2008 and so economic promises by Trump may hold some water to necessitate his win in the region.
Domestic policies have been instrumental in campaigns of both candidates and Hillary has opined that her presidency will offer the best and favorable domestic policies to the American people (Polsby et al. 2016, pg. 45). The policy proposals unveiled by Hillary details increased spending on job training for the people, enhance community college education so that locals can be empowered, improve infrastructure to ease business activities and promote adoption and use of clean energy that will not have negative impacts on the environment. Moreover, she has confirmed that in order to improve living standards of the people there is need to raise minimum wage for the people, something she is planning to do when elected (Lockie 2016). Immigration laws have been a hindrance to business activities and so she is planning to overhaul such laws to promote business and trade among individual citizens and their partners (Lockie 2016).
In addition, she has proposed the use of tax codes to ease activities of companies and this will improve profit sharing among stakeholders while raising taxes for the country to help in developing the economy. The tax policies that she is proposing will increase tax to high income earners and narrow incentives for business enterprises that will ensure sharing of profits with their workers. Moreover, she is planning to promote long-term investments through increasing capital gains taxes on assets held for shorter period of time and plans to impose hindrances to companies planning to move their addresses out of the country with the aims of evading or cutting down on taxes and bills. Socially, under proposals of Bernie Sanders, she is planning to generously support benefits for retirees especially lower income individuals in bid to improve their social lives and also make medical care easily accessible and affordable.
As part of his campaigns, trump has warned that the county is almost facing economic decline that cannot be reversed and that his policy proposals may help America. His domestic policies published in his book revolve around cutting down on taxes while reducing regulations and re-establishing new trade agreements between America and its partners. He has persuaded voters that once elected as the president, he will boost spending on defense and infrastructure while reducing budgetary allocations on no-defense programs. Infrastructure is very important for any country since it links people, good and services in different geographical locations, once the infrastructure is well developed that country is likely to realize improvement in economic growth and development. He has also promised never to touch popular benefits poignant on social security and medical care access as these programs are vital in improving social life of the people.
On taxes, Trump plans to cut taxes massively to push a majority of the households off tax brackets, reducing tax rate to 15 percent and abolish estate tax (Blair and Glenda 2005 pg. 75). The huge tax cut is likely to reduce revenue massively and this may also affect economic growth and development of infrastructure in the country (Hillary 2016). Donald Trump team have offered clarification stating that a section of non-corporate businesses may face a second layer of taxes on dividends to boost on revenue generation and poor individuals may remain in current tax plans. According to independent experts, proposals on social services is not credible with republican leaders floating ideas of cutting benefits on social security through Treasury account reserve to close demographic solvency gap (Hillary 2016).
Foreign policies for Hillary encompass strengthening internal relations through diplomacy and aims to increase and strengthen relationship that exists between China and America in areas that both countries have common interests. It is believed that this is important as it will promote trade, mutual agreement and understanding between the two countries (Masters 2016). On the same note, she aims to reinforce alliances with countries such as Japan and South Korea and will be instrumental in establishing a long term understanding while stimulating trade through exports and imports. As a successor of president Obama, she will aim to continue with defending and expanding her predecessor’s deportation relief actions to improve on diplomatic relations between countries partnering with United States (Schier 2011 pg. 18).
Diplomacy and immigration policies will provide a path for citizenship for the undocumented and even allow them purchase health insurance packages in her tenure as the president; this is important in promoting relationships but carries with it a potential threat to the country. To enhance security in the county, she proposes that violent criminals who are not original citizens of the country will be deported and others detained in line with measures aimed at keeping America safe from internal threats and criminals. Finally, her foreign policies will enhance and promote trade agreements aimed at creating jobs in the country to alleviate the problem of unemployment coupled with support export and import banks.
Political pundits have opined that foreign policies for Trump mainly revolve around protecting America from external threats and criminals; this is the reason why his leadership will increase military deployment and presence around South China Sea (Kranish and Fisher 2016, pg. 38). According to him, the problems faced by America is because of poor foreign policies that have resulted to decline in economy, increased unemployment and for that he will investigate and punish China for promoting unfair trade practices while protecting the country from cyber-attacks by Chinese. In bid to form a formidable military force, he proposes strengthening of military alliances to protect the county and fight terrorism which is now a global phenomenon.
Military deployment will increase under his tenure with active army soldiers moving from 490,000 to 540,000, navy ships increasing from 270 to 350 and air-force combat increasing from 1,100 to 1,200. In bid to protect American borders from criminals and illegal immigrants, Trump proposes policies to expand on fencing and increasing aerial surveillance to protect the country from intruders and organize deportation for illegal immigrants without proper documents (Kranish and Fisher 2016, pg. 60). Political scientists have affirmed that Trump aims to reduce unemployment rates through increasing jobs in the country; in fact, this has been a pillar in his campaign pledges and will achieve through formulating policies that ensure free trade agreements to create the jobs direly needed by the citizens. He has also promised to rip up the Iran deal which according to him is one of the worst deals he has ever witnessed in his life (Kranish and Fisher 2016, pg. 72).
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